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Attribution of recent climate change


❶The ocean flips from absorbing energy to releasing it, and convection takes the energy very high in the troposphere, cooling the ocean Sud et al.


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This video introduces Trump for the first time and has a surprising ending. By Elmer Beauregard 1. In fact the earth has cooled by almost 1 degree in the last year and has been flat for 20 years. Antarctica is at near record ice levels and the Arctic ice is almost back to normal levels and Greenland has […].

By Daily Rose, DailyMail. But as President Trump looks to help dismantle the hoax there is much inconvenient science at […]. Millie Weaver interviews Holly Swanson about the undisclosed agenda of the newly implemented environmental movement within our schools. Total Earth Heat Content from Google Murphy Research Abstract. Ocean data taken from Domingues et al From to , the planet has been accumulating heat at a rate of , gigawatts with the vast majority of the energy going into the oceans.

Considering a typical nuclear power plant has an output of 1 gigawatt, imagine , nuclear power plants pouring their energy output directly into our oceans. What about after ? A map of of ocean heat from to was constructed from ocean heat measurements down to metres deep. Google von Schuckmann Globally, the oceans have continued to accumulate heat to the end of at a rate of 0.

The planet continues to accumulate heat. Time series of global mean heat storage 0— m , measured in Jm So we see a direct line of evidence that we're causing global warming. Human CO2 emissions far outstrip the rise in CO2 levels. The enhanced greenhouse effect is confirmed by satellite and surface measurements. The planet's energy imbalance is confirmed by summations of the planet's total heat content and ocean heat measurements.

Hence we expect to find more infrared radiation heading downwards. Global warming is a scam! All you have to do is read about the history of our planet. Our planet went through these cycles all the time. The Medieval Warm Period MWP , Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that may also have been related to other climate events around the world during that time, including China and other areas, lasting from about to Science is NOW telling you that this is different.

THIS inter glacial warm period is called the Holocene. Also in , Thomas Jefferson penned a paper postulating the very similar thing about changes humans were making. By , scientists had firmed the connection between Human Actions and This Warming event. By it was widely lectured about, questioned and debated.

The presentation of her report at a major scientific convention in was accompanied by postulation that even modest increases in the concentration of CO2 could result in significant atmospheric warming.

This is no surprise…. Here is the deal everyone. Global warming is real but not why everyone may think. As the Earth rotates at a much slower rate each year, the sun is able to heat up our planet a lot faster. Now, the planet is also moving further away from the sun as well. This will also keep some type of balance. The movement of land masses will make the seasons change as well over time.

Eventually the artic land masses will move into a position that will cause the ice to melt. This will seem as if our planet is doomed but it is not. Human life will still remain for this time period until a second ice age happens. This will become the true test of the human race. Hopefully by this point we have found other habitable planets to live on. By this time, those who still remain will see the spectacle of the Andromeda-Milky Way collision.

Also around this time, our Sun will start to become a red giant. If the Earth is not far enough, the Sun will engulf what we know as Earth and all life on the planet will be destroyed with it. This is all speculation and in hopes that the human race does not kill itself off before these amazing events will occur. The problem is Google. They want people to believe.

The problem is the DNC. The problem is professors. The communists would like capitalism to run out of fuel. Here in Houston, i miss the warm. We used to have rainstorms every week and hot water rained down on us and we loved playing in it. Now there is freezing rain for the past few years, we actually have a winter season, and we got snow.

This affected everyone activities as lots of people dont bother getting warm clothes because it happens so rarely. I dont know about the rest of the globe but here we are experiancing cooling.

Try telling the truth next time. The River Thames London froze over every years and there is actually a celebration of that event…even though the river has not frozen over since It was also the last time the Earth had a cooler-than-average month.

The cause for the streak? You people should open your eyes. Coral reefs are dying and sea levels are rising because of melting glaciers. So yeah, there are going to be extreme cases of hot weather and COLD weather. What I find as amusing is that humans are being blamed as the culprit solely to line the pockets of politicians and jokers lime Big Al. Who caused the last glacier melts??? Being in Alaska I observe the symptoms of climate change as observed by the local weather more acutely than those at lower latitudes.

Consequently, the migratory birds are staying longer on both ends as well. And, the bears are out longer too. Similarly, our kettle lakes, which are a product of the most recent glaciation and also the type in my yard, are shrinking in circumference as the weather is warmer.

This is because the muskeg is drier and now better able to sustain trees. As further evidence of this, lakes with trees around them fill in, and the younger trees are shorter than the older ones, demonstrating the shrinking of the lakes.

The thawing of permafrost, and subsequent drying of wetlands it changing our biomes up here. In the once boggy wetlands muskeg of western Alaska, ungulate species are being introduced to forage on grasses and sedges, because such vegetation is now prevalent there and the ground is now firm enough to support the weight of browsers.

The estuaries where waterfowl used to come to feed are rather birdless because the area is no longer a wet tidal marsh. Similarly, this drying is having an affect on our fire patterns. Dense with peat moss, now dried out, it is a perfect storm for woodland fires. And, you may notice that many of your fire jumpers and teams are spending an increasing amount of their fire season in Alaska. This drying effect is also demonstrated well in our local spruce bark beetle outbreaks. The beetles prefer the warmer, drier, and longer summers, so are having a fantastic time destroying our taiga.

This compounds the increase in fire events exponentially and we are now currently due for yet another outbreak. This is separate from the issue of our glaciers receding at an unprecedented rate: The following image demonstrates the measured retreat of the ice.

I am not going to assert that my local environment is changing because of climate progression, or that climate is changing because of weather. That is not my interest. I post this because I am aware that some people do not yet understand that the global climate is indeed changing. We are evidenced with coming out of the last glaciation on time, as compared to all other interglacial periods.

Scientists and engineers use them because they are the vernacular, and there are no better alternatives. I say this despite the fact that my own work has been in much the opposite direction as Julia. Julia inherits the textual interaction of classic Matlab, SciPy and other children of the teletype — source code and command lines. I deeply believe that a sea change in invention and discovery is possible, once technologists are working in environments designed around:.

Yet they remain the tools by which humanity understands the world and builds a better one. If we can provide our climate scientists and energy engineers with a civilized computing environment, I believe it will make a very significant difference.

But not one that is easily visible or measured! A circuit model or mechanical model , these days, is essentially software as well. But again, such a model is not intended to serve as a working software system, but to aid in the design of a working physical system.

Here are a handful of languages intended for modeling, simulating, or designing physical systems:. Modelica is a programming language, but it is not a language for software development! If you believe that language design can significantly affect the quality of software systems, then it should follow that language design can also affect the quality of energy systems. Conventional software development is about building systems that live in a virtual world of pixels, files, databases, networks.

The embedded controller is part of a physical system, sensing and actuating the physical world. I started my career designing embedded systems. You implement it in C. This leads to long feedback loops, inflexible designs, and guesswork engineering. But most critically, it denies engineers the sort of exploratory environment that fosters novel ideas.

There exist methodologies with the right intentions — model-based design with generated code seems to be coming into use here and there on industrial projects, for example. As a result, software engineers find a fluid, responsive programming experience on the screen, and a crude and clumsy programming experience in the world.

So more and more of our engineers have retreated into the screen. But climate change happens in the physical world. The technology to address it must operate on the physical world. The tools discussed so far are for scientists and engineers working on a problem. How can someone find the right problem to work on in the first place? And how can they evaluate whether they have the right ideas to solve it? Everyone knows the high-level areas that need work: How do we surface these problems?

How can they be exposed to process problems common across many projects? Where does she go from there? What are open problems in the field? What are the fringe ideas?

What are the process bottlenecks? Why make improvements here? How would the world benefit? None of this information is at her fingertips. For each topic, she would have to spend weeks tracking down and meeting with industry insiders. There are many reasons, of course, why organizations tend not to publicize their problems. What if there were some way Tesla could reveal their open problems? Suppose my friend uncovers an interesting problem in gas turbines, and comes up with an idea for an improvement.

Is the improvement significant? Is the solution technically feasible? How much would the solution cost to produce? How much would it need to cost to be viable? Who would use it? What are their needs? What metrics are even relevant? Again, none of this information is at her fingertips, or even accessible. For some valuable inventions, such as thermal energy storage for supermarkets and electric powertrains for garbage trucks , one wonders how the inventors stumbled upon such a niche application in the first place.

In the case of garbage trucks, the answer is that the technology was developed for a different purpose, and the customer had to figure it out themselves:. Consider the Plethora on-demand manufacturing service, which shows the mechanical designer an instant price quote, directly inside the CAD software, as they design a part in real-time.

In what other ways could inventors be given rapid feedback while exploring ideas? Eco-Friendly Stimulus in the New York Times, proposing a government program to encourage people to scrap their old inefficient cars.

There was enormous debate, before and after, about what the parameters of the program should be, and whether it would be effective.

Many claims made during the debate offered no numbers to back them up. Claims with numbers rarely provided context to interpret those numbers. And never — never! Readers had to make up their minds on the basis of hand-waving, rhetoric, bombast. Say we allocate for the following program: Car-owners who trade in an old car that gets less than , and purchase a new car that gets better than , will receive a rebate.

We estimate that this will get old cars off the road. It will save of gas or worth of U. It will avoid CO 2 e, or of annual U. This passage gives some estimates of what the proposal would actually do.

Some numbers above are in green. Drag green numbers to adjust them. Notice how the consequences of your adjustments are reflected immediately in the following paragraph.

The reader can explore alternative scenarios, understand the tradeoffs involved, and come to an informed conclusion about whether any such proposal could be a good decision.

This is possible because the author is not just publishing words. Some numbers above are in blue. Readers are thus encouraged to examine and critique the model. If they disagree, they can modify it into a competing model with their own preferred assumptions, and use it to argue for their position. Model-driven material can be used as grounds for an informed debate about assumptions and tradeoffs. Modeling leads naturally from the particular to the general.

By exploring the model, they come to understand the landscape of that space, and are in a position to invent better ideas for all the proposals to come.

Model-driven material can serve as a kind of enhanced imagination. Climate change is a global problem. Discussion and debate will be central to figuring out the best actions to take.

We need good tools for imagining, proposing, debating, and understanding these actions. How do we get public perception and public discussion of energy and climate centered around evidence-grounded models, instead of tips, soundbites, factoids, and emotional rhetoric?

Or — are you really saving the earth by turning off your lights at night? How do you know? Ten Brighter Ideas As with many areas of public interest, the common wisdom surrounding energy conservation consists of myths and legends, rules of thumb and superstitions. We trust them blindly, not knowing whether our actions make any significant impact As you explore this document, imagine a world where we expect every claim to be accompanied by an explorable analysis, and every statistic to be linked to a primary source.

Imagine collecting data and designing analyses in a collaborative wiki-like manner. Imagine a concerned citizen who does a web search for "what can I do about climate change". These are lists of proverbs. Little action items, mostly dequantified, entirely decontextualized. How does it compare to other sources of harm? How does it fit into the big picture?

How many people would have to participate in order for there to be appreciable impact? And why trust them? Climate change is too important for us to operate on faith. In order for model-driven material to become the norm, authors will need data, models, tools, and standards. Ten Brighter Ideas is embarrassingly incomplete. I had to give up after three analyses because it was too painful to find the data I needed. I was spending days desperately typing words into search engines, crawling around government websites, and scrolling through PDFs.

This was before data. If a given country were to reduce deforestation by a given amount, how would that affect how much carbon it sinks? And how do you calculate the effects as those quantities change? People have figured out these things! The formulas exist in Excel spreadsheets and Matlab code, buried on old hard drives somewhere. The rare author will be able to make up their own models ; most authors have no choice but to trust and regurgitate soundbites.

Suppose there were good access to good data and good models. How would an author write a document incorporating them? Today, even the most modern writing tools are designed around typing in words , not facts. These tools are suitable for promoting preconceived ideas, but provide no help in ensuring that words reflect reality, or any plausible model of reality.

They encourage authors to fool themselves, and fool others. Imagine an authoring tool designed for arguing from evidence.

Perhaps the tool would have built-in connections to fact databases and model repositories, not unlike the built-in spelling dictionary. What if it were as easy to insert facts, data, and models as it is to insert emoji and cat photos? Furthermore, the point of embedding a model is that the reader can explore scenarios within the context of the document. Such tools are pretty much non-existent. The examples above use Tangle , a little library I made as a bootstrapping step. What might such a tool look like?

Some sort of fusion of word processor and spreadsheet? An Inform -like environment for composing dynamic text?

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Introduction. What exactly is global warming and why is it worthy of consideration? Global warming is the scientific phenomenon linking an increase of the average earth temperature because of a trapping of radiation within the earth like a greenhouse.

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Global warming is not a separate entity, nor uis Climate change. Furthermore these are not well defined subjects, they are vague. However, they are just results of what is happening to our planet – Global Pollution. Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent climate changes on Earth, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, particularly in the last 50 is the period when human .

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This started with a tweet. I’m embarrassed how often that happens. Frustrated by a sense of global mispriorities, I blurted out some snarky and mildly regrettable tweets on the lack of attention to climate change in the tech industry (Twitter being a sublime medium for the snarky and regrettable). Climate change is the problem of our time, it’s everyone’s . Climate change adaptation is a response to global warming (also known as "climate change" or "anthropogenic climate change"), that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, global warming and its effects should last many years, and adaptation.